Win Rate & Expectancy Calculator

Win rate alone is a vanity metric. Expectancy is what your account actually feels.

How it is calculated

expectancy = winrate × avg win − (1 − winrate) × avg loss

A 45% win rate can be highly profitable and a 70% win rate can bleed money — it hinges on the size of winners versus losers. Expectancy multiplies the two into dollars per trade; times your frequency, that is your real monthly edge.

Worked example

45% win rate, avg winner $120, avg loser $60: expectancy +$21 per trade (+$630 over 30 trades), while the break-even win rate for that payoff is only 33%.

FAQ

How many trades before win rate is trustworthy?

Under ~100 trades the confidence interval is roughly plus or minus 10 points. Judge systems on expectancy over hundreds of journaled trades, not a hot week.

Improve win rate or payoff first?

They trade off. Most durable systems fix a payoff floor (say 1.5R minimum) and optimize entries, because letting winners run is easier to systematize.

Where do I get my numbers?

From your journal — MarginPad tracks every paper trade automatically and the profile stats give win rate and average W/L to feed this page.

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Risk of ruinStop-loss & R targetsTrading journalPaper trading
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Free, no signup, runs entirely in your browser. Educational tool — not financial advice. Practice the setup risk-free on the MarginPad paper-trading terminal before putting real money behind it.