Bitcoin, ether perpetual volumes on Kalshi are dominated by an unusual, repetitive trade, data shows

CoinDesk found one $5,499 trade size accounting for 57% of sampled ether-perpetual volume, while recurring $2,500 and $5,000 trade sizes made up 54% of sampled bitcoin-perpetual volume

A small number of repeating trade sizes accounted for more than half the value traded on Kalshi's bitcoin and ether perpetual-futures markets, according to a CoinDesk analysis of the exchange's public trade records.

On the ether market, trades valued within $2 of $5,499 accounted for $7.7 million, or 57%, of the $13.5 million in transactions CoinDesk analyzed from Sept. 17 through Sept. 20. On bitcoin, two recurring trade sizes worth about $2,500 and $5,000 accounted for 54% of the $8.5 million data sampled over the same period.

Volume is one of the first metrics traders use to judge how active and liquid a market is — in other words, whether they can buy or sell without significantly moving the price.

High volume can also make a new market appear more widely used. So if a large share of that activity comes from the same recurring trade sizes, understanding who or what is generating those trades is important for assessing what the volume actually represents.

For example, if a publicly traded stock reports millions of dollars in trading volume each day, traders may assume there are plenty of buyers and sellers on both sides, making the stock worth trading.